The Nigerian real estate sector has officially emerged as the country’s third largest economic contributor, surpassing the oil and gas industry, according to preliminary figures from the ongoing GDP and CPI rebasing conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The rebasing exercise, which updates how Nigeria calculates the size and structure of its economy, reveals a major shift. Crop production now ranks as the largest contributor to GDP, followed by trade, with real estate taking the third spot. Oil and gas, once one of Nigeria’s leading sectors, now ranks below real estate in overall contribution.
In the third quarter of 2024, real estate services contributed 5.43 percent to real GDP. Though slightly lower than the 5.58 percent recorded in Q3 2023, the sector recorded a strong quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 16.15 percent and a significant year-on-year nominal growth of 46.52 percent.
Despite economic challenges such as inflation and reduced purchasing power, demand for real estate continues to grow, particularly in the residential segment. Nigeria’s housing deficit is estimated at around 28 million units, with a required annual delivery of 700,000 new homes to close the gap.
Market forecasts highlight the sector’s massive potential. According to Statista, the Nigerian real estate market is expected to reach a value of $2.61 trillion by 2025, led by the residential sub-sector, which alone is projected to be worth $2.25 trillion. The industry is also expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.91 percent between 2025 and 2029, reaching $3.41 trillion by the end of the period.
Luxury apartments and modern housing developments in urban centers are driving the surge in demand, as more Nigerians seek comfort, quality, and long-term investment options.
The current rebasing exercise, the first since 2014—is aimed at providing a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economic realities. The 2014 rebasing had previously led to an 89 percent increase in GDP and elevated Nigeria to the status of Africa’s largest economy.
The rise of real estate as a top-three economic sector not only reflects changing market trends but also signals increasing investor confidence in Nigeria’s built environment and its long-term growth prospects.
